El Niño has long been part of natural climate oscillations. But more recently, “likely due to the influence of climate change, the effects of El Niño have become more extreme and less predictable,” David Costalago, a marine scientist with the advocacy group Oceana, said in an email.
Scientists believe extreme El Niño (and La Niña) patterns may develop more frequently as greenhouse gas emissions cause the planet to continue warming. Research suggests that trend could make El Niño’s own warming influence more pronounced and dramatic.
By one estimate, if greenhouse gas emissions continue rising dramatically, extreme El Niños could occur once a decade instead of about once every other decade. That could fuel more intense storms, droughts, heat waves and wildfires.
